Illusory Correlation

What is Illusory Correlation?

Illusory correlation is a psychological term that refers to the tendency to make an unproven connection between two or more unrelated events, people, behaviors, or variables—simply because they occur at the same time.

With illusory correlation, there is no evidence that two variables are connected, but individuals have already drawn a conclusion because of their own preconceived biases. In HR, this may lead to inequitable, discriminatory, and costly hiring decisions.

For example, a hiring manager may believe that candidates with a prestigious degree from a top university will perform better than candidates from lesser-known institutions or alternative paths. This can be an unconscious hiring bias that may point towards an invisible paper ceiling.

Imagine if this same hiring manager had already hired candidates from well-recognized educational institutions and noticed they were (or are currently) high performers. They could hold onto this bias even more tightly, as they have an “anchor” or a reference point of who’s been successful in the past, which perpetuates this line of thinking.

This assumption might overlook a candidate’s practical skills, experiences, and other qualities that contribute to job success, which could weed out potentially strong candidates before they even had a chance to participate in a video interview and talk about their background.

Equity issues are at play in this scenario, as candidates with different starting points (e.g. school of their academic degree, or formal education as a whole) are not being considered on a level hiring field.

Impact of Illusory Correlation on DEI Measures

When illusory correlation is in place, it can have a negative impact on an organization's diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) progress.

Illusory correlations can lead a hiring manager to make connections that invoke other hiring biases, including:

• Gender bias: If an employee has a negative interaction with a female supervisor, they may associate this experience with other leaders who are women.
• Racial bias: If a manager has an employee of one race who is frequently tardy, the manager may assume that all people of that race have similar shortcomings. 
• Religious bias: If a candidate wears a religious emblem on a necklace in an interview, the hiring manager may assume that the candidate will be conservative. 
• Political bias: If a candidate worked for a politically liberal or conservative company, the interviewer might assume that the candidate shares their former employer's political views.
• Age bias: If a manager's parents struggle with technology, they may assume that all older people experience the same challenges, which can lead to ageism.

Individual vs. Organization-Wide Effects of Illusory Correlation

The illusory correlation bias can influence decision-making and behavior at different levels, through taking mental shortcuts known as heuristics. At the individual level, illusory correlations may lead to faulty judgments and stereotypes, while at the organization level, they can contribute to systemic biases, impacting policies, practices, and overall culture.

Illusory Correlation Examples

Open-Ended Interview Questions

Illusory correlation is at play when interviewers ask unusual or out-of-the-box interview questions such as, "What type of animal would you be if you could choose?" or “If you could have any superpower, what would it be?”

While many hiring managers and recruiters believe that the answers to these types of questions can be revealing or determine a candidate’s culture fit, these fail to  be a predictor of actual job performance.

In this scenario, the only correlation that exists is how the candidates' responses make the hiring managers feel, which does not add value to the process of determining a candidate's potential performance on the job.

Interview Attire and Competency

Another example of illusory correlation in recruitment is when recruiters unconsciously believe that candidates who dress in formal business attire are more competent than those in more casual attire. This could be based on a false assumption between appearance and capability.

A hiring manager overlooking qualified candidates who may not fit a stereotypical appearance or dress code, even though they might perform just as well (or even better) in the position.

For example, a recruiter may hold an unconscious bias or prejudice against candidates with brightly dyed hair or tattoos, which can lead to the Halo and Horns effect. They might unfairly associate unconventional hair colors with negative traits, like a lack of professionalism; or conversely, positive traits like creativity. These snap judgments can cloud the recruiter’s evaluation of the candidate’s skills, qualifications, and potential fit for the role.

The solution? Structured interviews with consistent questions that uncover skills and competencies relevant to the job. Rather than relying on “gut feelings” or common ground, these interviews offer pre-defined rating scales based upon situational problem-solving abilities and more objective displays of role fit.

How Structured Interviews Help Lower Illusory Correlation

Structured interviews can help lower illusory correlations by reducing bias and increasing consistency in the interview process. These correlations occur when people perceive a relationship between two variables that doesn’t actually exist, often due to cognitive biases or selective attention.

During interviews, this can happen when interviewers make judgments based on stereotypes or anecdotal evidence, leading to inaccurate conclusions about candidates. In the long run, organizations may experience higher turnover rates, a lack of diversity, missed talent opportunities, and in extreme cases—even lawsuits.

The benefits of structured interviews:

• Standardized questions 
• Objective scoring criteria with interview scorecards
• Reduced influence of pre-existing biases
• Increased consistency across interviewers
• Focus on relevant information
• Clear documentation of responses

Tips to Reduce Illusory Correlation During Recruitment

During the recruitment process, HR managers can hire more fairly and reduce both conscious and unconscious hiring biases by preparing ahead of time. They can look more closely at quantitative data and empirical evidence (such as measurable skills and situationally-based answers) over hunches and gut feelings.

Also, conducting a panel interview allows for more perspectives to gain a better, more balanced view of the candidate. By having more than one interviewer on board at a time, organizations can better capture more thorough impressions and data on interviewees. This way, the recruitment team obtains a more balanced view of the candidate.

In closing, illusory correlations can sometimes lead to biased decision-making, where interviewers may link unrelated traits or behaviors to a candidate’s potential. By using structured interviews, recruiters can confidently lower the chances of these biases. With clear, consistent questions and objective criteria, structured interviews help HR evaluate candidates more fairly—which encourages a more positive candidate experience.